Easy Money, Skyrocketing Assets: A Dangerous Liaison?
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The recent meeting in China has ignited a wave of interest among economists and citizens alike, primarily focusing on two significant terms that emerged: "moderate easing in monetary policy"—a phrase first coined fourteen years ago—and "more aggressive fiscal policy," which had never been seen beforeThese concepts are not just abstract terms; they signal a crucial shift in how China is approaching its economic landscape during turbulent times.
As new strategies are adopted in both monetary and fiscal policy, China has simultaneously witnessed an impressive rebound in its asset marketsThe A-shares saw a collective surge with all three major stock indices opening significantly higher, while the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index did not lag behind, marking a robust upward trend in the Hong Kong marketThis reaction indicates a strong international recognition and acceptance of China’s adjustments to its economic policies.
But what exactly does this shift in monetary and fiscal policies mean for the average citizen? Are there tangible benefits that will trickle down and positively impact everyday lives?
To begin dissecting the implications of these favorable measures, one must reflect on the last time "moderate easing" in monetary policy was discussed—during the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis
In both 2009 and 2010, China employed similar monetary tactics to cushion the blow from the international recessionThis historical precedent sets a crucial context for understanding the current measures: whenever a significant economic or financial crisis emerges, policy adjustments are likely to follow.
The international atmosphere has been rife with tension, particularly in relation to geopolitical dynamics that affect global economics and financePotential tariffs and technological embargoes from the United States pose serious challenges, suggesting that more extensive monetary easing and active fiscal policies will continueEssentially, it’s not just a possibility, but a near certainty that we are entering a lengthy period of "flooding the market" with liquidity.
The dialogue at the meeting further emphasized the goal of "stabilizing the real estate and stock markets" as a means of safeguarding against external shocks and key risks
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Upon closer inspection, the parallels between the conditions in 2008 and the present are striking—both eras are characterized by declining sales in the property sector, increased inventory, and a slowdown in investments and construction projects.
Typically, a sluggish broader economy aligns with a downward trend in the real estate marketWhat could be the relationship between these two economic entities? The evidence is clear: the past few years have shown a noticeable drop in housing prices, and the number of individuals willing to purchase properties has also significantly decreased, all attributed to a faltering economy where people’s incomes dwindle, leading to diminished consumer confidence.
This leads to the conclusion that a healthier real estate market can catalyze economic development, while economic growth can reciprocally support the stability of the real estate sector
In light of this understanding, various measures are already in motion to stabilize the housing market, such as widespread reductions in mortgage interest rates.
Such policies hint at a future where mortgage rates may fall below 3% next year, potentially accompanied by decreases in deposit ratesAs a result, barring unforeseen complications, major cities may experience a resurgence in their real estate markets in the coming quarters.
Turning our attention to consumer behavior, another focal point from the meeting revolved around "boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand." This concept is coupled with a phrase that caught many ears: "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments." The interpretation of this term involves understanding the nature of policies that have previously been employed, which tend to be more conventional compared to the extraordinary measures expected in the near future—more aggressive and stimulative in nature.
What might these extraordinary measures entail? While specific actions will unfold over time, there are already proactive measures being taken
For instance, the government’s initiative to promote the replacement of old household appliances through subsidies not only stimulates consumer spending but also drives the revitalization of outdated industries and technologies—contributing positively to consumer sentiment.
The enhancement of national scholarships for university students can also be seen as a strategy to develop a substantial consumer base while encouraging academic diligenceHowever, these initial measures are unlikely to sufficeThe full spectrum of adjustments in monetary and fiscal policy could yield even greater incentives to stimulate consumption in ways that currently exceed expectations.
A broad perspective reveals that since the Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rate cuts in September, a domino effect has prompted many countries worldwide to follow suitChina, too, is expected to lower its interest rates significantly next year, potentially by as much as 0.5 percentage points
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