Last Friday,the US dollar index hovered around the 107 mark,ultimately closing down 0.071% to settle at 106.94,maintaining stability at high levels not seen in over two weeks and achieving its best weekly performance in a month.The rise in US Treasury yields continued,with the two-year note at 4.247% and the ten-year note at 4.396%.One noteworthy development was the inversion of the 3-month to 10-year Treasury yield curve ending for the first time since early November 2022.Among the major US stock indexes,there was a mixed performance; the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.20%,marking its seventh consecutive trading day in the red.In contrast,the NASDAQ gained 0.12%,while the S&P 500 closed flat.

This week is being dubbed "Super Central Bank Week," as major central banks including the Federal Reserve,the Bank of Japan,and the Bank of England are set to conduct their final monetary policy meetings of the year.Market consensus anticipates that the Federal Reserve will enact a 25 basis point rate cut at its meeting scheduled for December 17-18,with probability figures reaching an impressive 97%.This expectation is largely rooted in recent economic data suggesting easing inflationary pressures and a cooling labor market.

However,while the anticipation for a Fed rate cut is robust,market analysts are also monitoring for hints that the central bank could pause further rate reductions come January.This uncertainty poses potential risks for short-term adjustments in the gold market.Recent economic data from the United States has had a significant bearing on gold,with last Thursday’s report revealing a gradual cooling of the employment market alongside a modest trend in producer price inflation rates,further consolidating the market’s outlook on a possible reduction by the Fed.Nevertheless,rising Treasury yields continue to exert pressure on gold prices,with ten-year US Treasury yields hitting a three-week high,indicating market caution regarding future economic outlooks.

Geopolitical risks remain a critical factor influencing the gold market.Recently,the capsizing of two Russian vessels due to storms raised alarms about oil product leaks,sparking market concerns around supply chain safety.Furthermore,investor sentiment towards the upcoming governmental transitions is creating waves of influence over gold prices.Policies that favor businesses might provide short-term economic stimuli but could inadvertently lead to rising inflation,thus impacting the Fed's monetary strategies.Analysts widely caution that the government could monitor price pressures more vigilantly,likely resulting in a more tempered approach from the Fed in future decision-making.

Backing by the loose monetary policies and strong central bank purchasing have seen the gold market perform robustly over the past weeks.As central banks worldwide are actively seeking to diversify their reserves,the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset is intensifying.Market data indicates that central banks have reached new highs in gold purchases this year,underscoring the ongoing robust demand for gold.

In summary,with regards to short-term trends,it's essential to watch for pressure zones on an hourly downtrend line above,while also keeping an eye on daily support areas as gold prices stabilize,presenting future opportunities for those looking to engage in gold buying.Additionally,expectations surrounding global crude oil demand are gradually improving.The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 upwards from 990,000 to 1.1 million barrels per day,emblematic of an optimistic view of future demand.

Furthermore,data revealing a year-on-year increase in China’s crude oil imports for November—the first such growth in seven months—suggests that major refineries are capitalizing on lower prices by increasing imports from key exporters such as Saudi Arabia.This shift injects new vitality into the global crude oil market.

On the geopolitical front,tensions surrounding Iran are heat up,with Western powers including the UK,France,and Germany prepared to reinstate international sanctions to curb Iran's nuclear aspirations.This uncertainty has added to the market's supply-side concerns,subsequently pushing oil prices higher.

Recent inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicating a decline in crude oil inventories supports market fundamentals,often associated with increasing market demand—especially in light of overall economic recovery.Market actors are presently optimistic regarding the short-term trajectory of oil prices as they await to see the momentum and subsequent direction of price movements.

This week marks the concluding "Super Central Bank Week" of the year,with much anticipation resting on the Federal Reserve's impending interest rate decision.The prevailing sentiment is that the Fed may cut rates by 25 basis points during its December 18 meeting,a move which could potentially spur economic growth and elevate fuel demand.Should such a cut materialize,oil prices may likely breach upward,further energizing market sentiment.

In addition,the market remains attentive towards fluctuations in EIA inventory data,where any unexpected decrease could positively influence oil prices.Currently,demand for crude oil is robust,particularly in the backdrop of economic recovery in substantial Asian economies,thereby delivering strong underpinning for oil prices.